Health Impacts Of Global Warming
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�The Implications For Health In Global Warming’
This essay will discuss global warming and the degree to which it will negatively affect people’s health and well being. Negative global warming related health effects will vary greatly due to geographical location and socio-economic status. Generally developed countries will be far better placed to confront the health challenges of climate change, than the developing word that already experiences a lower average state of health and less developed infrastructure.
Global warming refers to the measurable increase of average global air temperatures over the century (1905 to 2005). The 2001 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (I.P.C.C) concluded that since the mid nineteenth century, that there has been an increase in average global temperature of approximately 0.6 percent and that most of this increase occurred during the end of the twentieth century. Further to this the I.P.C.C. projected global temperature rises of between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees celcius by the year 2100. The predominant theory explaining this rise in global average temperatures is human activity, particularly the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels. The effect of climate change on human health will be varied according to geographical location and the vulnerability of the local population. Potential adverse health consequences include but are not limited to temperature related illness and death, extreme weather related health effects, air pollution health effects, water and food born diseases, vector and rodent born diseases, effects relating to food and water shortages and mental health implications.(Sunyer & Grimalt, 2006 & McMichael et al, 2003).
The European summer of 2003 was potentially the hottest in five hundred years. Average temperatures were 3.5 degrees celcius above average resulting in approximately 22 000 to 35 000 heat related deaths. Causal links have been established between global warming and the prevalence and severity of these kinds of extreme weather events. Geographical characteristics can exacerbate the effect of heat extremes. The large amount of asphalt for roads and roof tops found in most developed cities, can reach temperatures 30 to 40 degrees celcius higher than the surrounding air. This �heat island’ effect can raise the air temperature in cities to between 5 and 11 Celcius higher than surrounding country areas. This quite obviously has serious health implications for highly urbanised societies, particularly so for vulnerable populations groups such as the elderly, very young and infirm. (Patz et al, 2005).
Extreme weather events in addition to the above mentioned heat-wave include prolonged periods of drought and potential wild fires, increased extreme rainfall events and potentially more frequent and severe storm activity. The projected trend for the next century is for the number of hot and very hot days to increase and the number of cold or very cold days to decrease.
Drought through its impact upon food production can lead to famine, exacerbating pre-existing conditions of malnutrition. Further to this, prolonged periods of drought accompanied by political, economic and social instability, may lead to a collapse in food marketing and distribution systems. An example of this is the food emergency in Sudan during 1998. During a period of drought water may be used exclusively for consumption to the detriment of hygiene. This increases the potential for faecal contamination of food potentially leading to diarrhoeal diseases and water washed diseases such as trachoma and scabies. (Aalst, 2006, McMichael et al, 2003, & Diaz, 2006)
Increased rainfall events, including monsoonal activity and storms, have the potential to cause flooding, landslides, erode soil and put enormous strain on disaster relief agents. The associated health implications range from immediate death or injury, to medium and longer term consequences such as the spread of water born disease, declines in food production leading to malnutrition, psychological illness and the destruction of vital infrastructure. Water centred disasters including floods, cyclones, hurricanes and rain-storm spawned tornados cause death and injury through the effects of flooding, falling objects, motor vehicle accidents, falls and chain-saw injuries related to cleaning up after the event. The incidence and severity of tropical cyclones has been increasing over the last thirty years and since 1970, the number of category four and five cyclones has doubled.
The I.P.P.C. predicts that over the next century, tropical cyclone wind speed could increase by between five and ten percent, with a twenty to thirty percent rise in precipitation. (Aalst, 2006, McMichael et al, 2003, & Diaz, 2006)
In developing nations, the health consequences of flooding are more severe due to lower public health standards, generally poorer sanitation infrastructure and the often already diminished health status of many citizens. During the 1988 Bangladesh flood, diarrhoea was the most common cause of death in people under the age of forty five displaced by flooding. In addition to this, the number of severely malnourished children greatly increased as a result of the flooding. Adverse psychological health effects as a result of flooding in Brisbane during 1974 included, fifty flood linked suicides and an increase in the diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder. (Aalst, 2006, McMichael et al, 2003, & Diaz, 2006)
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomena occurring every three to seven years caused by warm equatorial water shifting from the Western to Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the most powerful agent for short term climate variability in the world. The 1997-98 El Nino event is considered responsible for creating extreme dry conditions leading to forest fires in some parts of the world, along with extensive flooding in others. Climactic change brought about by El Nino has been linked to drought and the spread of diseases such as malaria in Latin America and South East Asia and to a lesser extent, cholera, hantavirus infection and Rift Valley fever. Torrential rain in much of East Africa associated with the 1997-98 El Nino event, caused a malaria epidemic in the highlands of south western Uganda. During the same period, hospital admissions for children suffering diarrhoea in Lima Peru, was two fold higher than that of the preceding four years. The increase in temperature in excess of normal seasonal variations was found to be the main environmental variable impacting upon admissions. The degree to which the frequency and severity of El Nino events are affected by global warming is currently being debated, with many climatologists