Essay About Business Cycles And  Double Digit Gdp Growth

Connector Breif View of 2011
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Historically, the connector industry goes through business cycles that result in consecutive years of growth
before experiencing a downturn. Since 1980, we have had five growth business cycles, including 2010,
when a new business cycle started.
Connector Industry Business Cycles
These cycles are clearly visible in the following graph.
Bishop and Associates, Inc. Copyright © 2011 3
This data provides some interesting findings:
 Since 1980, the average growth cycle for the connector industry is six years.
 Three of the four cycles produced compound annual growth rates of 9.5% to 10%.
 The highs and lows have been more pronounced in the past 10 years – more volatility.
The strength of the 2010 recovery (sales growth of +28.4%), combined with the strong YTD growth of 9.8%
through April 2011, suggests that we may be at the beginning of another up business cycle.
There are some troublesome HEADWINDS:
 High unemployment in the U.S. and Europe
 Heavy government debt, with the potential for defaults in some European countries
 High deficit spending in the U.S. and a stalled budget process in Congress
 Japans natural disasters and nuclear reactor problems
 Unrest in the Middle East and Northern Africa
 Housing market mired in recession-like condition
There are some promising TAILWINDS:
 Historically low interest rates
 Modestly improving worldwide GDPs
 Automotive industry recovery
 Stock market recoveries worldwide
 Double digit GDP growth in China and India
 Explosive growth in smartphones and tablets
 Increasing demand for bandwidth and speed in our communication systems
2011 Outlook
Based on current demand for electronics, we are raising our 2011 forecast from a growth of +6.7% to
+8.5%. The following table forecasts connector demand by geographic region.