Macro Economics
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A Device smaller than the size of a palm could now perform tasks more than a dozen of employees could have done in the 80’s . The world has changed since then and the face of this change is not yet finally mature. Some relevant aspects of this change are : The globalization and new de-globalization , Fiction technologies realized real, Social network , war on terror , Jihad concept , The euro birth , The renewable power, Fracking , Free trade , trade /not-aid for development concept, the environmental awareness ,unipolar force, depleted natural resources Europe not EU , TESLA’s Green ambition …Not since the term EME was introduced by Antoine W. Agtmael of World bank in in 1981 , the emerging markets economies has faced such a heated global situation. The EMs has faced several crisis in the past such as the Asian crisis 1997 , but all were related to small group of countries , while the current global trend threatens all . Several steroids multiplied growth of EMs in the past decade, especially after 2008 crisis, such a non-recurring rapid growth that the world economy may not witness anymore. Moreover the commodities supercylce acted as a booster between 1980-2000’s were the oil prices raged 1000%. Another notable challenge recently is the debt in emerging markets economies, and the resulting depreciation of their currencies. The Fed’s monetary policy and Interest rate is putting more pressure on EM’s to service their debts; although this challenge impact is not even between all models due to some individual reforms, but still a concern. Another shot in the leg of EMs aimed from the rich world, that is fracturing globalization through regional trade agreements (TTP) Whether Bric , Brics, Eagles , Civets , Mics … Acronyms to emerging countries that are expected to contribute in 50% or more of Global economy by 2020 in spite of today’s global question : “Recession or More growth?”Changes are crucial and has already began in several EME’s , while a lot more is to be done in others . Such changes cannot be generalized for all, taking into consideration that each country has specific economical, geopolitical , and cultural aspects .Domestic-led growth : THE DRAGON Chinese growth is slower as it reorients from export-led to domestic-led growth. China will be pushing its productive capacity into other lower cost places like Vietnam generating growth to smaller countries, while other larger emerging markets are putting substantial capital into institutions that will be dominated by China (an indication of how frustrated they are with the World Bank and the IMF)Treat your clients well : THE RUSSIAN BEAR & OTTOMAN SULTAN The political stability is key for development and sustainable growth, and muscle power over clients is not anymore applicable .
Russia has backed up from the famous immature kremlin quote “Europe had lost“, retreated on antitrust claim, and Gazprom’s new fexibility out of growing fear from competitive flexible LNG supply from US, Algeria , and ME. Simultaneously , Turkish government lost a crucial role to be Russia’s hub to EU market over the Warplane incident, while lurking in a middle income trap.Growth Driven Leaders- ROLE GOVERMENTS : Mondi’s India ,Transparent and real economic indicators are crucial for cash-inflows , for building global trust , and for generating popper reforms. Finally India has a bold step to adapt a more accurate policy to calculate GDP, (Since the official GPD was out spacing China !)The inflation is down now; the fiscal situation has improved; and the economy has benefitted from the drop in oil and commodity prices. Mondi remains a popular reform‐minded leader whose policies are attracting the support of domestic investors. A Role Model for ChangeThinking outside the box : SHEIKH’s OIL ! “Who is afraid of cheap oil “ , a topic quoted from The Economist (23rd , Jan 2016) as much as cheap oil pessimistic view is over exploited , there is bright side for even the most driven oil commodity economies , THINK OUT SIDE THE BOX .It’s was push forward to embrace economic diversification for Qatar/UAE /KSA and trying to establishing themselves as a general trading hub, having made large investment in ports and other transport infrastructure in recent years. EMs has to embrace a solid economical module and a financial system that can control turbulence in their currencies, government debt, and bank deposits. Also ,to Implement a monetary and a fiscal policy to contain the adverse consequences of debt buildup and irrationally exuberant stock market. The mentality is shifting towards consistent growth, as shown in main examples where key changes were covered, the following reforms are to be embraced as well :Add value through research , design and quality (Turkey is stuck here) Increasing Birth rates is still and will remain a CAPITAL (Africa )Trade agreements to generate new opportunities (China and India’s role)Diversify and boost economical module with independent income generators like tourism and services (GCC, ME )Invest in infrastructure while avoiding un-useful public spending(Brazil is stuck here)Raise the level of education , good health , climate awareness , and awareness for natural resources value , that will increase productivity and raise retirement age . (All In)shift from know who – to know how economy (All In)The value of “ease of doing business” cannot be fairly explained. (impressive Colombia )Remaining open to the free flow of technology.Dis-arm political corruption, Chronic Mismanagement – weary labor laws The crucial role of party-independent development and financial system secures continual development.build development institutions that are resilient to regime changes (Brazil again and Again)Final comment, Such a topic can be updated on daily basis due to the fast pace changes happening globally.