Effects of Demonetization in India
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K J Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research[pic 1]Macro-Economics AssignmentOnEffects of demonetization policySubmitted toProf. Prema BasargekarSubmitted ByKunal Mokashi (26) ContentsAnticipated effect of demonetization: 2Short term effect on economy 3Long term effect on economy 3Effect on Macro-economic parameters 4Impact on rural economy 4Impact on Informal Economy 5Impact on formal and informal financial institutions 5Sectoral Impact of demonetization 5Challenges in Implementation 7Anticipated effect of demonetizationThe demonetization of ₹500 and ₹1000 banknotes is a policy enacted by the Government of India on 8 November 2016. The below figure shows the distribution of currency notes denomination by value. It is seen that 86% of monetary value of currency was demonetized. One of the biggest intention of this move is to attack the stock of black money accumulated by tax evasion and other unfair means. People who are holding black money in cash will not be able to exchange much as they would be in a fear of getting penalized and prosecuted by the authorities. Enemies of the country which are involved in counterfeit currency and terrorism will not be able to continue it further for quite some time at least. The smuggling of arms and dealing with the terrorist will not sustain their operations and funding to illegal activities will to a halt. [pic 2] Secondly, govt intends to move towards a cashless society. Demonetization of 500 and 1000 rupee notes is expected to make a shift in culture of cash transactions to digital transactions. Cashless society will increase credit access and financial inclusion. Financial transaction done through the credit card, debit card, net banking and the other source of electronic payments can be monitored by the government and give them the ability to track and stop black money transactions. Cashless is the permanent solution to counterfeit currency which pays a big role in terrorism and smuggling. It also reduces the cost of managing the paper currency.Thirdly, it is expected to reduce government liability. Since every note is a liability for the government, the old currency will become worthless for those people, who choose not to disclose their income. Thus, this will extinguish governments liability to that extent. The govt revenues are expected to rise as they will seize the unaccounted money. The bank rates will then go down and will lead to lower interest rates which will lead to increase in consumption levels. Short term effect on economyThere will be a disruption in the current liquidity situation as households are likely to get affected by the note exchange terms laid by the government. Though clarity is unfolding on this, commodity transactions and general cash market transactions are likely to feel an immediate impact. Unorganized sector proceedings, including small trade market activities, will remain volatile in the short-term.
It is important to note that a significant percentage of the Indian workforce is employed in this sector, which is likely to be affected by immediate liquidity issues. Overall, negative impact on disposable income is expected along with likely disruption in the consumption patterns of the general populace. It is estimated that there will be a negative GDP impact in the current quarter as consumption gets a shock in the immediate term. However, quantum and degree of this impact cannot be ascertained now.Long term effect on economyThe demonetization is attacking only the stock of black money and not addressing the generation and flow of black money. As the situation normalizes, counterfeiting of the currency will resume as enemies of the state have the necessary resources and technology to print the new currency notes. Cash is only about 6% of the black wealth remaining being in offshore accounts, real estate and gold. Hence the desired effect of bringing back the black money and thereby increase the govt income is difficult to achieve. Pulling out 86% worth of currency notes out of the system without notice, without adequate preparation & without consulting with the economic experts of the country is sure to have unintended consequences. The Rating agencies such as Moody’s and Morgan Stanley have lowered their forecast for India’s GDP growth from 7.5% to 6.5% for this fiscal year and lowered the forecast for next two years. However, at this time it does not look like it will cause a recession or lower growth in the future as the basic economic fundamentals continue to strong.Effect on Macro-economic parametersIt is difficult to estimate accurately the actual effect on macro-economic parameters as no historical precedence of any other country demonetizing its currency on such a large scale, only the countries facing hyper-inflation has done such demonetization. However, it is estimated that the tax rates and interest rates on loans are expected to come down as higher income tax collections arising from better compliance would offer scope to reduce rates over the long term. Inflation is expected to come down as too little money is chasing too many goods also the unaccounted money in the real estate will be taken out of the system. Impact on rural economyCash and cooperative banks are the back bone of the rural economy. Debit cards, credit cards, net banking and online transactions that are popular in Urban India are nonexistent in the rural part. The lopsided rural-urban spread of ATMs and bank branches has snuffed out economic activity in rural India, with micro, tiny and small enterprises finding it impossible to get cash in 100-rupee notes for their daily operations.India’s agriculture sector was expected to have a great year. The rainfall was good after two years of drought and the sector was pegged to grow by about 4% in the current fiscal. Demonetization means that the sector could once again take a hit. Agriculture is a cash driven sector and most of the payments for the purchase of seeds, fertilizers, and tools, as well as for laborer salaries, are carried out in cash. India is currently in the middle of harvesting its Kharif (or monsoon) crops and is soon expected to prepare land for the Rabi crops, which are harvested during spring. Farmers are finding it tough to sell their produce in the APMC (agricultural produce marketing committee) markets. Therefore, despite a good harvest, there is unlikely to be a significant improvement in rural demand.