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Objective:
My goal is to observe, analyse, and understand the patterns that tourism in our country goes through in terms of number of tourists. I am choosing foreign tourism, i.e. the number of foreign tourists visiting India yearly. After I gather raw data, Ill analyse it by taking averages, totals, various comparisons such as monthly, annual, and seasonal, and finally rounding it up with a tentative amateur prediction. I would also like to apply my mathematical skills to understand the pattern, defining the kind of graph or equation the patterns are based on (i.e. parabolic (quadratic equation based), curved (exponential equation based), linear equation based)
Observations of Raw Data:
The raw data I collected was from two different internet sources, one being slightly older. I found data for 2002 there, but 2004 data was provisional, and 2005 was incomplete. I found these on a different website, though 2005 data is still provisional.
Looking at the basic flow of my graph, tourism in India has been steadily increasing, almost having touched the 4 million point. On an average every year the rate of tourists has been increasing by various rates though the highest difference till now was 2003-2004, when the tourist number increased by 26.8%, which is high compared to 2002-2003s 14.3%, and last years 13.2%.
The monthly analysis was pretty much as expected, as the tourist numbers take a dip in summer, though strangely they rush up in July. The highest are of course in winters. Monthly tourists also increase rapidly, as the average of year 2005, is almost double to that of 2002. The basic pattern of tourists monthly is pretty much the same. I made my graph of raw data (Chart 3.) a chart of every years monthly tourists.
RAW DATA:
2005
January
228150
274215
337345
386260
February
241133
262692
331697
389081
march
216839
218473
293185
367068
April
159789
160941
223884
260825
144571
141508
185502
229651
134566
176324
223122
258822
178231
225359
272456
292345
august
162594
204940
253301
270779
September
163089
191339
226773
252625
October
213267
260569
307447
328968
November
245661
290583
385238
415287
December
296474
319271
417527
463613
Increase per annum
2003-02
14.3
2004-03
26.8
2004-05
13.2
My Graphs and Analysis of Data
My first step is to make a comprehensive graph (Chart 1.) to show the very basics of TOTAL annual tourists for simple easy reference. I made a pie chart (Chart 2) to show how much every year has contributed in the total tourism, and as obvious in both, the tourism Stats have been increasing, and contribution is in ascending order.
No. of Tourists
Contribution in total
2384364
2726214
3457477
3915324
12483379
Next I went on to the monthly analysis; I already had a graph to show every years monthly tourism. I decided to take out an average, showing how normally the tourism every month occurs (Chart 4.). A comprehensible pattern is seen