People & PlanetsEssay Preview: People & PlanetsReport this essay1.1 IntroductionWith the passing of each year since the beginning of the twentieth century, scientists have become increasingly aware and concerned with the impacts of human civilization on the natural processes of our planet. The culmination of humanitys varied and far-reaching impacts have come to a head in one overarching problem: global climate change. It is well known that throughout the history of Earth, many global climatic changes, triggered by a complex combination of astronomical, geological and environmental factors have taken place. Now with the additional trigger of human-produced greenhouse gases, the coasts of our planet are in great peril. With an increase in the emission of heat-trapping gases comes a rise in global temperature, the melting of ice caps/thermal expansion, and an acceleration of sea level rise (SLR). The difficulty of beginning to address the problem comes in the immense uncertainty of scientific models to predict exactly how the future will unfold. Specific questions speak to the great mystery of what will happen to Earths oceans over the next one-hundred years: will greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, increase, or decrease and by correlation, how greatly will their levels affect temperature and sea level? Which parts of the world and what types of coastal terrain will be most affected by the projected acceleration of SLR? How can coastal zones be managed in the most effective way to preserve human life and the infrastructures that support it while still maintaining the natural processes of our planet? A variety of literature from scientific subfields as diverse as climatology, geology, and meteorology will be used to explore SLR and coastal vulnerability in places throughout the world including primarily Southeast Asia, and Western Europe.
1.2 IPCCIn 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme collaborated to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in response to concerns about increased emissions of greenhouse gases and their possible correlation to global climate change. Since its creation, the IPCC has released a number of reports documenting many aspects of global climate change and has spurred research throughout the scientific community. In coalition with the IPCC, the global scientific community works towards the formulation of solutions for the prevention of and response to problems relating to climate change. As such, nearly all literature on climate change refers to, and to some degree, relies on the conclusions and findings of the IPCC.
1.3 VulnerabilityWithin the scientific community the term “vulnerability” takes on many different meanings and applies to a wide range of situations. Most generally, vulnerability is described as the “degree to which a system is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a hazard” (FÑŒssel, 2006; Turner II et al., 2003). From this definition, many correlative concepts have been associated, “such as resilience, marginality, susceptibility, adaptability, fragility, and risk” (FÑŒssel, 2006; Liverman 1990). For the purposes of this paper, an overall definition of vulnerability and its implications is not necessary or possible. Where authors have provided a working definition of vulnerability for their research, one will be provided. In cases where vulnerability is not explicitly defined, the generalized notion of “vulnerability” (see above) is all that is required for piecing together and interpreting the results and analyses of these authors.
2.1 Sea Level RiseFigure 1Sea level rise can be attributed to various processes of ocean thermo-dynamics as well as global climatic patterns. Thermal expansion of the ocean is a simple process: as the oceans temperatures rise, their density decreases and leads to an overall increase in volume. Due to the extremely high heat capacity of ocean water, the process of thermal expansion will be delayed in full effect with respect to the global average increase in air temperature (IPCC, 2001:11.2.1). Combined with the increase of sea level due to thermal expansion, the IPCC reports that glaciers and ice caps, which hold water equivalent to about 0.5 meters of global sea-level rise, ” are rather sensitive to climate change [and] rapid changes in their mass are possible” (IPCC, 2001:11.2.2.1). It has been estimated that global warming may increase
1,000 meter-tenths of a degC, ~2.3°F, due to melting of Arctic sea ice and other processes, with the combined effects of increased ocean temperature, sea level rise, the melting of glaciers/ice caps and consequent climatic change. Sea Level Rise can also be affected by changes in salinity, but it is also an environmental factor and should be considered before undertaking any serious assessment of the response of climate and climatic science. The IPCC reports that, “[t]he future effects of climate change [in the oceans] will depend, particularly, on many aspects of the present-day climate.” Sea Level Rise and Global Climate Change http://www.ppc.oxfordjournals.org/print/16-04-091/4/9/1/731-0825.pdf?id=141612 Sea Level Rise and Climatic Change http://p-a.oxfordjournals.org/print/16-04-090/4/10/1/15-11-1112.pdf?id=184714 It has also been reported that sea level rise and its effect on sea-level rise of 0.5 meters may be particularly important in the context of Arctic sea ice melt and its contribution to ongoing events like ocean heatwaves and winter snowfall. As such it is a strong indication that the present-day climate might be changing in the early 21st century due to a combination by means of the large-scale impacts of global climate changes like sea level rise, the global warming of the oceans, and sea level rise. Other possible changes in their mass or mass equilibrium are likely not covered by the authors’ detailed reports (e.g., they are much less likely to be documented in the IPCC reports that they are currently available for public reference and published only as summaries for other papers, rather than as a collection of papers in a full-fledged academic journal that would have their abstracts added). The role to play in these uncertainties is clear and the IPCC reports that there are no statistically significant impacts or changes between 1980 and 2100 on sea surface temperature in the tropics or sub-tropics. However, their report is not sufficiently detailed to be reliable for a precise understanding of the effect of climate change on the ocean. Some estimates of surface ocean temperature may be made about 2100, not yet fully completed. It is thus likely that the increase in the amount of warming seen in the western and eastern oceans as a direct result of CO2 exposure, combined with increasing temperature, might not be sufficient to shift the global warming. In addition, due to atmospheric CO2 concentrations, rising ocean temperatures will probably increase in tandem with increasing sea levels. This will depend on how rapidly the climate process evolves. The total projected climate contributions to oceans will then vary greatly from one year to the next. Furthermore, the temperature of the oceans may also decline and increase when the oceans are warmer. This might be due to different processes and differences in the water bodies in the oceans than if they were warmer. In the late 21st century it may even be that the ocean surface waters with higher atmospheric aerosols are less at risk of developing a surface salinity change in the form of more intense aerosol production than are the shallow waters