Essay About Good Chance And Worst Case

Harvest the Grape Case Study
Words count : 266Given the complexity and multiple possibilities in this case, I think whether Mr. Jeager should harvest the grape immediately or just leave grapes to ripen more fully depends on which purposes he tends to achieve eventually.If he wants to avoid the risk and minimize the loss (because they have suffered from great losses due to the storm in the past few years), he would surely not risk it again to wait for nothing this year. Therefore, he should harvest the grape immediately no matter what. If he believes that the short run revenue is now the most important for the company, (maybe the company did not perform very well recently and the revenue did not look good), then he needs to calculate the expected payoff based on those probabilities and pick the biggest one. In this case, he would have a good chance to maximize the expected revenue if he decides to wait to see if the storm hits.If he thinks that what the company really needs to do is to attract more customers and build a good reputation among the customers, then what should come first is not the quantity but now the quality of their wine. In that case, he should definitely leave the grapes on the vine and hope for the best. If by any chance, they are lucky enough to get the botrytis cinerea or something even better, they can expect a considerable increase in reputation. And even if the worst case happens, the winery still has the option of not bottling that wine, making no harm to its reputation.