Real Estate Market Analysis
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Table of Contents
Market Analysis
Forecast Population Growth to 2025 2
Housing Affordability, Average Sales Price and Growth 4
Housing Characteristics 6
Society and Ambiance 6
The age distribution 7
Types of households 8
Educational attainment 9
Economic Outlook 10
Unemployment Rates & Employment growth 10
Household income 11
Capital Improvement Program 12
Market Analysis
Forecast Population Growth to 2025
Collin County is one of about 3,141 counties and county equivalents in the United States. It has 847.6 sq. miles in land area and a population density of 704.5 per square mile.
Growth in population and employment is a primary reason for increased congestion in the Nations metropolitan areas. The Country has grown in population and employment in recent years, and will most likely continue doing so. The 2000 Census revealed 281 million people living in the United States, which represents a 13.2 percent increase since 1990.
Some regions of the Country have experienced higher growth rates than others. In recent years, the U.S. population has undergone redistribution from the northeast and mid-west to the southern and western regions of the Country. The 2000 Census revealed a dramatic increase in Hispanic population of 57.9 percent from 1990 to 2000, compared to 13.2 percent for the total U.S. population. More than 75 percent of the Hispanic population lives in the west and south, this may account for Texas displacing New York as the second most populated state in the Country.
As a result, many southern and western regions of the Country grew at a rate two or three times faster than the national average, while many northeast and mid-west areas grew at a much smaller rate.
Entering 2005, Collin Countys housing market is poised for long-term continued strength and growth. The regions cities are growing and new markets are emerging in the area offering growing retail and business establishment opportunities, as well as attractive places to live in proximity to Dallas. As you can see in Figure 1.1 Collin countys population has increased almost %56 since 1990.
Figure1.1
Collin County, TX
Population and Components of Change
Population
Change
Components of Change
Total
Population
Change
Births
Deaths
Inter-
national
Immigration
Domestic
Migration
1991
279,114
15,078
5,835
1,287
8,729
1992
292,321
13,207
4,725
1,096
8,047
1993
310,668
18,347
4,863
1,102
13,199
1994
330,867
20,199
5,390
1,209
14,596
1995
352,738
21,871
5,872
1,307
1,272
14,792
1996
378,488
25,750
6,128
1,384
1,795
17,757
1997
408,371
29,883
6,517
1,450
1,732
21,256
1998
438,214
29,843
6,861
1,501
1,711
20,358
1999
468,620
30,406
6,683
1,490
1,800
20,485
2000
491,675
23,055
2001
537,796
46,121
11,003
2,316
4,782
31,180
2002
568,950
31,154
9,379
1,898
3,826
19,309
2003
597,147
28,197
9,495
1,876
3,826
16,454
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census
This trend of rapid growth is expected to continue through the year 2025. According to 2030 demographic forecast prepared by the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) Research and Information Services (RIS) Department in 2003, population for the DFW Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA) will grow by about 63 percent and employment by 64 percent, from 2000 to 2025.
Taking into account, this population growth and average persons per household estimates, over one million households will likely be added to the Dallas PMSA in the next three decades. If current trends continue, approximately 40 percent of these new households will be captured by Collin County, significantly driving the residential market in this region. In fact, 98 percent of all population growth in the PMSA is expected to be captured by the three county areas of Collin, Denton and Dallas.
Housing Affordability, Average Sales Price and Growth
As it is illustrated in figure 2.1, Collin County has the highest percentage of families that can afford median-priced homes in Dallas market and it is 14 present above the whole US market average.
Figure 2.1
Dallas Market Overview 2004
Housing
Housing Affordability – Fourth Quarter 2003
Percent of Households
That Can Afford
Median-priced Home
THAI*
THAI for
First-time
Homebuyers
Collin County
Dallas