Essay About Software Progress Of The Next Ve Months And Ve Months

Delaying the Hardware Expansion
Delaying the Hardware Expansion
Because the hardware expansion could be completed in ve months,
Stearns thought continuing with the all-out development of the software
for the next ve months would be prudent before committing to the
hardware expansion. The software progress of the next ve months would
certainly give him a better idea of the chances of completing the project
on schedule. If the ve-month progress were favorable, then Stearns
reasoned that the chances of completing the project on time would rise to
90 percent. If the progress were unfavorable, the chances would decrease
to something like 40 percent. However, the distinct possibility also existed
that the progress over the next ve months would leave him in the same
position in which he now found himself, with an 80 percent probability of
completing the project as scheduled.
Lecture 9 (SEEM 4103) Cityu, SEEM July 6, 2015 11 / 14
Stearns believed that this latter event (not learning anything new in the
next ve months) had a probability of about 30 percent. He thought
carefully about how to distribute the remaining 70 percent probability
between the favorable progress” and unfavorable progress” events and
soon realized that, in order to remain consistent with all of his earlier
assessments,