Judgmental Heuristics
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Judgmental heuristics are principles or methods by which one makes
assessments or judgments of probability simpler. These heuristic are often very
useful but sometimes they lead to systematic errors. In activity #1 A- the
principle that is used is the representativeness heuristics it uses an event which
is judged to be probable to the extent that it represents the essential features of
the parent population or of its generating process (garns).
In activity #1-B I actually chose in this case between the options of heads,
Tails or no preference. I chose no preference. There should be no preference in
a 50/50 gamble. Therefore this example was also a Representative Heuristic
however this used the gamblers fallacy. This states “that a successful outcome
is due after a run of bad luck or that a series of independent trials with the
same outcome will soon be followed by an opposite outcome” (Plous, 1993).
Activity 2 a. – In the sequence of the xs and os the random process utilizes the law of Small Numbers and the Hot Hand. One may perceive that the first string contained too many alternations to be random rather than the second string. In the case of the Hot Hand one may have the same reoccurring item or may not. Often times people state that this is considered a lucky strike but ultimately it is the probability chance of a sequence. Activity 2 b. & c. – In reviewing questions b and c they both resemble the Anchoring and Adjustment principle. “Tversky and Kahneman explained this phenomenon in terms of the insufficient adjustment up or down from an original starting value or anchor” (Plous, 1993. p. 145). In these examples the anchors are low based upon people review the information and imagine a few folds or under estimate the probability of the event resulting in a lower response.
Activity